Average Odds 52.38% Box

3/8/12 9:08PM - 1 comment

At last, MLB is fast upon us and the 52.38 is finally gone.  As many of us know, -110 creates a break even point of 52.38%.  Spread wagers in football and hoops create the box, MLB flattens the box completely by taking advantage of the moneyline (ML).  Now, I am definitely a ML capper in football and hoops but the opportunities are not as prevalent.

One of my strategies is making a profit when I score a win percentage in the high 40's.  Thats right, in the high 40% range.  Currently, over the past 800 documented selections, I have posted a win percentage of 49.88% with an ROI 3.48%.  How is this so, because the average odds of those selections was +129.  At +129 odds, your break even point is 43.66%.  The 52.38% does not have to be your break even point by any stretch.

So as the games grind out and the juice eats you up, look for situations within your selection base to make yourself profitable by actually losing more games than you win.  If you do this, you will be onto something special and profitable!

The Contrarian

On April 12th at 4:33PM Coffin Corner Said:

I couldn't agree more with the Contrarian here as it pertains to moneyline dogs. In the mid-1980s, the "First Twenty" series of Sports Publications by the late Huey Mahl and the late Billy the Greek Vassal & available at the Gamblers Book Store in Las Vegas did a study and showed that, in terms of the juice/vig, the oddsmakers shade slightly toward the "favorite"... ..thus making the "underdog" a slightly more favorable underdog than they would be at the 11/10 pointspread line. You couple that free boost provided by the oddsmaker with some kind of study on your own as to how the underdog line moves throughout the betting day... one is thus decreasing the handicapping prowess necessary to break into profitability. The Contrarian is very good at Basketball & Baseball selections..... You don't have to take my word for it... go to line.com yourself and view every pick he has ever made against the 5Dimes wagering line... Heck, open up your own account at line.com and try handicapping yourself to see just how tough this is If you're here and you're reading this, then you're also on the cusp of something "magical" that can represent a mature, significant element with any responsible investment portfolio. Go to line.com and become a handicapper for free and read the articles that are "stickied" on "money management". You've invested this amount of time to get to this blog... invest another 45 minutes to set yourself up with your own handicapping account and the "trials" and "travails" of attempting to beat the bookmaker and you see just what a good value you are getting with the Contarian ($3 per day in a 31-day month)

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